Gators take on Tide in Tuscaloosa

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/14/2012 - Tuscaloosa, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 14th-ranked Florida Gators seek a quick turnaround, as they head to Coleman Coliseum for Southeastern Conference competition with the short-handed Alabama Crimson Tide.

This game matches up an apprentice with his former master, as Alabama's head coach Anthony Grant spent 12 seasons learning from Billy Donovan at Marshall and Florida. Alabama holds a 78-53 lead in the rivalry. Grant has yet to beat the Gators.

Florida is on its first two-game losing streak of the season after falling against Kentucky and Tennessee in its last two outings. Donovan's team is still 19-6 overall and second in the SEC with a 7-3 mark in league action. The loss on Saturday was the second to the Volunteers this season. The Gators can only blame themselves for the loss, as they missed nine free throws (19-28) and committed 15 turnovers in the contest. Florida is still one of the most feared teams in the nation, as the Gators are netting 78.8 ppg. Opponents have averaged 65.9 ppg on 42.6 percent shooting from the field on the Gators.

The Gators come into the game with all five starters carrying double-digit scoring averages. Kenny Boynton leads the charge with 17.5 ppg on 47.2 percent shooting from the floor. Freshman guard Bradley Beal is second on the team in both scoring (14.4) and rebounding (6.2). Patric Young does a good job in the middle and Erving Walker runs the show from the point position. Donovan was missing Mike Rosario (hip pointer) against Tennessee, and will be without Scottie Wilbekin (concussion) tonight against the Crimson Tide.

Anthony Grant made a bold move and suspended four starters for the team's last contest, which resulted in a 67-58 loss to LSU. Of the four players suspended for violation of team rules, Trevor Releford and Andrew Steele are expected to return, while Tony Mitchell and JaMychal Green remain suspended indefinitely. While Alabama is considered on the bubble, a win over the Gators would be a huge step towards the postseason. Without Green and Mitchell, the team's top two rebounders, the Crimson Tide will need a breakout performance from one of their reserves on the glass tonight.

Releford is the top scorer expected to see the floor tonight, as he averages 12.4 ppg. The sophomore point guard also leads the team in steals (2.2) and assists (3.1). Alabama started four freshman and seldom used junior Ben Eblen against LSU. The highest scorer of group was Trevor Lacy, who contributes 6.6 ppg. Rodney Cooper took advantage of the opportunity and exploded for career- highs of 28 points and five steals.

Myspirtsbook NCAA Basketball Betting News

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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